You want to check the forecast for the Northern Lights, but you don’t know where or what to search for. Every Aurora hunter has been there previously; that’s why in this guide, I’ll provide you all the keys to accurately predict the Northern Lights, and attain the best photos!
Understanding how to analyze the Northern Lights forecast and being patient is crucial if you want to boost your chances of seeing this elusive phenomenon. No matter how adept you are at predicting the Northern Lights, forecasts can change in minutes!
Today, understanding the forecast for the Northern Lights is easier than ever! Numerous tools for predicting the Northern Lights make it accessible to all, so you don`t need advanced knowledge in physics or to memorize complex formulas.
I have gained experience photographing the Northern Lights around the globe for many years, and in this article, I’ll summarize my entire knowledge so you can easily learn how to interpret the Northern Lights forecast.
Content:
- Methods for Predicting the Northern Lights: Key Considerations
- Northern Lights forecast tonight
- Predictions for observing the Northern Lights in Iceland
- Northern Lights predictions for Alaska
- Northern Lights predictions for Canada
- Northern Lights predictions for Norway
- Forecasts for viewing the Northern Lights in Finland
- The solar cycle and the chances of viewing the Northern Lights in 2023
Table of Contents
How to predict the Northern Lights
Before examining how to predict the Northern Lights, I suggest taking a look at our articles on the prime time to witness Northern Lights and the optimal locations to observe Northern Lights. For an auspicious Northern Lights forecast it’s crucial to be at the right spot since you can’t see the Aurora everywhere across the globe.
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Within the Northern Lights forecast, there are three major indicators for monitoring the Aurora:
KP Index in Northern Lights forecast
The KP index is a commonly referenced tool for predicting Auroras both short and long-term.
This Aurora projection sign (known as “planetary K-index”) is only a scale to quantify the geomagnetic action that is directly linked to Northern Lights visibility. Here, you can gain a little extra info about what causes the Northern Lights.
The KP-index ranges numerically from 0-9 and, generally, has the following implications for Northern Lights forecasts:
- The higher the KP-index, the further south you can view the Northern Lights.
- The higher the KP-index, the more likely you will see a vivid Northern Lights display at higher latitudes.
For instance, with a KP 3, sighting the Northern Lights in Iceland is very probable, but if viewing in England is the goal, data indicates a KP 5 or higher will likely be necessary.
KP is just an indicator, but in most circumstances:
KP 1 to 3: Visible lighting formations from the skies near the North Pole are usually faint and calm. The dominant color observed is green, and they are most easily discernible gazing northward at locations farther from the equator. It’s difficult to perceive them with unassisted vision, but a camera device can capture the green glow.
KP 4 to 6: The Northern Lights are energetic. You can see how they move across the sky, possibly presenting vivid hues like yellow, pink, or purple tones. Aurora coronas are also viable, and the Northern Lights can be discernible at lower latitudes, such as in England or the Northern states of the USA. It’s simple to see them with your eyes and see how they flow across the sky, they gently illuminate the sky.
KP 7 to 9: Powerful Aurora activity. The Northern Lights can be readily seen. They have the ability to cover the entire sky and display rarer hues like red. Aurora coronas are commonplace, and the Northern Lights can be visible at lower latitudes, like in California, France, and even northern Spain.
It is already considered a solar eruption of grade G1 at KP5. KP6 signifies a solar eruption of grade G2, KP7 means a solar eruption of grade G3, KP8 means a solar eruption of grade G4, and KP9 solar eruption of grade G5, the maximum ever recorded.
Long-Term Northern Lights forecast – Long-term KP Index
Predicting the visual spectacle of the Northern Lights over extended periods can pose challenges. Ejections of solar material called coronal mass ejections (CME), which tend to cause more potent solar storms and therefore brighter Auroras, are forecasted around two weeks in advance, but their intensity and general form can fluctuate once nearer Earth.
The most effective way to predict the Northern Lights ahead of time is by utilizing the long-term KP index.
I utilize, and suggest, SpaceWeatherlive. It also exhibits the moon phase, which is helpful and intuitive simultaneously.
Is the KP forecast a good indicator for the Northern Lights Forecast?
The KP index presents the easiest way to understand indicators for Northern Lights activity; however, it is important to consider this index with some skepticism because it does not always accurately portray conditions, as on some occasions viewers have observed vibrant Auroras despite a forecast of low KP levels.
Furthermore, the KP forecast necessitates a particular amount of time to be updated, while strong geomagnetic storms can arise abruptly. There are cases when the display of the Northern Lights has already ended before the KP index is refreshed, and for this reason, it is helpful to consider extra tools for an accurate Northern Lights prediction.
Interplanetary magnetic field and Bz in Northern Lights forecast
The most dependable indicator to inspect in the Northern Lights forecast is the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). When the IMF north-south direction is unfavorable, determined in the value named “Bz”, there is a big chance of seeing the Northern Lights, even with a low KP. All the main Aurora apps demonstrate this value on their data, and it’s the best indicator to anticipate great Northern Lights displays.
The only cons of this indicator is the relatively short-term notification as this is assessed by the Deep Space Climate Observatory satellite named DSCOVR, which is situated between our planet and the sun. We don’t have reliable data on this until approximately 1 hour before the Northern Lights can be seen on Earth.
Ovation Auroral Northern Lights prediction
The Ovation Auroral forecast is a model that provides a near-term prediction of the Northern Lights.
This model exhibits the Northern Lights forecast map around the Auroral oval zone, so if you’re inside or around 500 miles (800 km) above or below the area of the Northern Lights cover, you’ll have a chance of seeing the Aurora.
The power of the Aurora is exhibited in varied hues, ranging from green (weak/regular action) to yellow (bigger action), and lastly red (really strong action).
This Aurora forecast is also known as the NOAA Northern Lights prediction since it’s provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.
Below, you can see the NOAA Northern Lights forecast in real-time:
The Ovation Auroral forecast provides a short-term Aurora outlook. If you go to their website and press play, you’ll see an animated graphic with the .
Solar Rotation − Long-Term Northern Lights Forecast
Another aspect to take into account in the long-term Northern Lights prediction is the solar rotation.
The sun rotates around its own axis through a repeating cycle of approximately 27 days, and if it releases a large amount of solar particles toward earth, a similar event will likely reoccur around that same timeframe.
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However, don’t take this as a rule of thumb. It’s just another way to predict Northern Lights visibility in the long run.
Northern lights forecast tonight
The simplest and most direct way to know the Northern Lights forecast for tonight is by using a Aurora application such as My Aurora Forecast.
Most of the Aurora Forecast applications will display all the mentioned information before in an easy-to-use and digestible format, such as the long-term KP, the short-term KP, and the Ovation Auroral forecast according to your location.
Some reports additionally contain technical information, like the direction and speed of solar winds, and even photos of sunspots.
To me, the most engaging feature integrated within the premier Northern Lights forecast applications is the alert and notification system that triggers when the KP is rising in your location.
Best Apps to Forecast the Northern Lights
My Aurora Forecast
There are many excellent Northern Lights anticipation programs on the marketplace, but my favorite, and the one I always employ, is “My Aurora projection”. This complimentary app comprises all the basic and progressed tools to estimate the Northern Illuminations according to your site.
This application is available for both iPhone and Android smartphones and if you are looking for a simple and straightforward manner to predict Northern Lights, this is the application that I recommend. The primary benefit of this application is that it’s highly user-friendly. However, it lacks some complex data and alerts that are available in the next application on this list.
Glendale App
Glendale App is among the most sophisticated applications intended to predict the Northern Lights. It displays very intricate data, like pictures of Coronal Holes and Solar Flares on the surface of the Sun. It too shows information on the most recent Coronal Mass Ejections (CME).
However, my favorite feature without a doubt, is the potential to receive alerts on your smartphone when solar activity heightens in your location. Another great feature is the live feedback from users around the world who report their sightings of Northern Lights.
On the other hand, navigating the Glendale App isn’t very intuitive, and it is not overly welcoming for newer users. However, if you wish to delve into the fascinating realm of chasing the Aurora, I recommend familiarizing yourself with the Glendale App.
When reviewing the forecast for the Aurora on any of these apps, there are a few aspects to keep in mind. For example, solar exercise doesn’t impact every place in an identical way. Additionally, some Northern Lights conditions, like the climate, vary drastically from one location to another.
Keep in mind that regardless of how massive the solar storm is, you will see nothing if the sky is covered. Besides applying Aurora Borealis prediction resources, you must check the weather outlook. Specifically, you want to look at the cloud coverage forecast, and for this, it`s very beneficial to leverage local tools that will demonstrate you the locations with clear skies near you where you can observe the Aurora.
In addition to the apps mentioned previously, these are the best Northern Lights forecasts depending on your specific location:
Northern Lights Forecast in Iceland
For more information, check out our article on the best time and places to see Northern Lights in Norway.
On this site, you can easily see:
- The Reykjavik Northern Lights prediction and the Aurora outlook for all other regions in Iceland.
- The magnitude of the Moon phase. This is also intriguing given that a full moon can render weaker Auroras less observable. However, we have also seen the Northern Lights with a full moon present.
- The sky coverage in real time. This is the most important tool for tracking the Northern Lights across the island.
For the long-term forecasts of the Northern Lights in Iceland, you can review Spaceweatherlive, which provides predictions.
You can find more details in this article we wrote about the optimal times and locales to view the Northern Lights in Iceland.
Northern Lights Forecast in Alaska
In terms of the most complete Northern Lights forecast in Alaska, the most thorough site is the Geophysical Institute of Alaska.
On this site, you will find:
- The Alaska Northern Lights forecast in Fairbanks, Anchorage and throughout the Alaskan territory.
- The Ovation Auroral effect prediction.
- The current moon phase.
- The 27-day anticipated extended Aurora prediction for Alaska.
You can also anticipate the appearance of the Northern Lights in Fairbanks using this Northern Lights live camera.
Finally, this cloud mapping of Alaska from satellites will aid you in optimizing your chances of witnessing the Northern Lights in the natural setting known as “the last frontier”.
For general Northern Lights predictions in the USA, such as forecasts for areas like Minnesota and Montana, I recommend checking the short-term forecast from NOAA and the long-term forecast from Spaceweatherlive to anticipate potential displays of the Auroras in cities where they can be seen during major events.
Matt spent a few days in Bologna solo on his last trip to Italy, and stayed at the linked Bibliò Rooms and Guesthouse.
Northern Lights Forecast in Canada
For observing the projected sightings of the Northern Lights in Canada, you are able to browse Aurora Watch.
This site features:
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- The Short-term Northern Lights projection in Canada.
- The percentage likelihood of observing the Aurora in the Edmonton area. This approach can provide the Aurora projection in Banff and the Canadian Rockies region.
- The historic data so you can plan your trip for the prime time.
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Northern Lights Forecast in Norway
The most dependable prediction site to forecast the Northern Lights in Norway is the Norwegian Center for Space Weather Monitoring (NOSWE).
This site serves as a comprehensive resource for Northern Lights in Norway, where one will find:
- Northern Lights forecasts in Tromso, Oslo, Svalbard, and many other locations.
- Forecasts for Auroras in Norway.
- Webcams Showing Northern Lightsfrom different locations in real-time.
To view the cloud cover forecast in Norway, a great resource is YR.no. For additional information, check our article on the optimal times and locations to see the Northern Lights in Norway.
Northern Lights forecast Finland and Sweden
For a Northern Lights forecast within Europe and other suitable regions to view the Aurora, like Finland or Sweden, you may utilize Auroras Now.For additional information, here is the post we have created about the optimal time and places to see Northern Lights in Finland and the optimal time and places to view Northern Lights in Sweden.
To inspect the cloud prediction in Finland, utilize the SAA website .
Solar Cycle and Aurora Borealis: Is 2024 a good year to see the Northern Lights?
To conclude this article, I just wished to address one of the most common inquiries we get these days: Is 2024 a good year to see the Northern Lights?
The Northern Lights depend completely on solar movement, which pursues an 11 year-cycle.
During this 11-year period, the sun has less activity at the beginning and end of the cycle, called solar minimum, and a time of more activity in the middle of the period, also known as solar maximum.
During periods of increased solar activity known as solar maximums, there is more noteworthy activity from the sun which heightens the potential for viewing more frequent geomagnetic storms and vivid Northern Lights at lower latitudes.
In 2024, the solar maximum of cycle number 25 is expected, so it’s deemed an exceptional year to witness the Northern Lights. The solar maximum was expected in 2025, but experts from NOAA predicted this date to be late 2024 as outlined here.
This year is expected to see above-average solar movement resulting in more solar flares producing larger visual displays at mid-latitudes.
The year 2023 brought about noteworthy solar phenomenon, as evidenced through our Iceland Northern Lights Photography Tour and Norway`s Orcas & Aurora expedition, which witnessed some of the grandest displays in recent years.
Conclusion
Northern Lights forecasting relies on real science, but it can be summarized by understanding a couple concepts, such as the KP-index and Aurora prediction maps.
Use the KP index as a rough guide for an Aurora forecast. Be certain you`re trying to see the Lights when a promising prediction exists rather than just an estimate of the viewing time.
Don’t neglect to inspect the atmospheric condition forecast. Even if the sun is thawing, you won’t observe the Northern Lights if the skies are concealed.
Ultimately, my last suggestion: if you’re planning a Northern Lights trip and don’t wish to be bothered by maps and data, download any of the top Northern Lights forecast apps and activate the alarms/notifications to know when solar exercise will increase in your area.
Please feel free to ask any questions about the Northern Lights forecast! Happy hunting!
Note. If you are a photographer, enjoy a lifetime experience chasing and capturing the Aurora with us on our Iceland Photo Tour or our Lofoten Islands Photo Tour!
